Over at Brittanica Blog they’re having a big forum this week called “Newspapers and the Net,” all about the state of newspapers in the digital age. This morning, Nick Carr and Clay Shirky weighed in, talking about the new economic model: the shift from scarcity to abundance, the unbundling of the traditional newspaper model, and the loss of distribution as a service worth paying for.
They’re interesting and well worth the read – but, I must say, a little too hysterical.
They’re both lamenting the loss of good (read: expensive) investigative journalism. How does that work? Because they think that the unbundling means that each story is a stand-alone business. As Carr puts it, “Each story becomes a separate product standing naked in the marketplace. It lives or dies on its own economic merits.”
A story on depression might do well as it attracts ads from drug companies, and a story on RRSPs might do well as it attracts ads from investment companies or banks. But a story on government corruption might not do so well, even if it attracts a large readership, since it won’t simultaneously attract expensive advertising.
Therefore, since investigative journalism must stand alone and won’t do very well by itself, there’s no money to pay investigative journalists and the trade will die off. And then governments, unfettered by their traditional watchdogs, will run amok. And that’s a bad thing, by any standard.
That’s the argument, in a nutshell. Various statistics are trotted out supporting the doom and gloom: newspaper readership has been shrinking year over year since 1984, and the shrinkage has dramatically accelerated in the last couple of years. Only half of American adults read a daily newspaper in 2006, while half of adults under 36 got their news online. The NAA reported recently that newspaper revenues took the sharpest decline in half a century last year. And so on.
Nobody doubts that the industry is in turmoil, that readers are moving online, and that online revenues are not robust enough to replace falling print revenues. Newspapers, and media companies in general, need to hustle to figure this out. But to argue for the eventual death of investigative journalism seems to me a little over the top.
That argument depends on this whole notion of unbundling, so that pieces of investigative journalism would have to stand on their own, “consuming costs and generating revenues in isolation.” So let’s take a closer look at this notion of unbundling.
Carr says that online, the bundle falls apart, because people don’t read online the same way they read the newspaper bundle. They usually won’t even come through the front page of your site – they come to a specific story page via Google, or their feed reader, or Digg, or Twitter, or what have you. Then they go away again, to a different news report or blog on that subject. They may not even be aware which news organization’s site they were on.
The idea of a news report standing completely on its own can be parodied by imagining that every news story was published under its own domain name – like HarperVisitsAuschwitz.com – with no branding, no outside links, except maybe to the reporter’s news organization, and some ads. Now the people responsible for selling those ads go to advertisers and say, look, we have this story on Harper visiting Auschwitz, you want to put an ad on it?
That is not how online advertising is sold, now or in the future. And it’s not how stories are put online, today or in the future. Advertising is sold onto sites, whole sites, and they do well or don’t do well depending on the overall traffic that site receives. The bundle is not completely gone.
Yes, some services from the traditional newspaper, like classifieds and real estate and TV listings have gone away to be aggregated in online-only services like Craigslist – where, quite frankly, it makes a hell of a lot more sense both from the advertiser’s and the consumer’s point of view. And news aggregators make it easier for readers to search for just the kinds of news they like to read, from whatever sources are available.
But the aggregators need to get their news from somewhere, and that somewhere is, and will likely remain, the websites of traditional news companies. Yes, the dreaded MSM. (UPDATE: this comment on Jeff Jarvis’s blog post on the same issue got me thinking: it won’t be the MSMs at all, rather, it will be from a handful of press agencies like CP, AP or Reuters)
And an online news story is not completely stand-alone in two other important ways. First, when the fickle reader arrives on a story page from Google, he can be enticed to look at other pages on the site. Related stories, Most Popular/Read/Emailed/Commented widgets, related multimedia, readers’ comments: all these serve as very effective advertising for other parts of a news org’s site. You CAN get people, even people coming in from their feed readers, to look at more pages. And then these page views get pooled into your traffic (also called readership) which you then sell to advertisers.
The second way is that you can develop community around the traditional content your site puts out. Community papers in particular are in an excellent position to dominate the local web space in their respective communities. I’ve talked about this before.
In summary, I think it’s a little early to be sounding the alarm on the death of investigative journalism, or of the media organizations capable of supporting investigative journalism. While I agree that now is, in fact, the time to panic – and to experiment relentlessly – we have no reason (yet) to believe that the robust companies that have developed around the gathering and distribution of news will not be able to adapt to the new economic models being forced on the industry by the Internet.